Understanding Heavy Tails of Flood Peak Distributions

Statistical distributions of flood peak discharge often show heavy tail behavior, that is, extreme floods are more likely to occur than would be predicted by commonly used have exponential asymptotic behavior. This behavior may surprise managers and citizens, as human intuition tends expect light the heaviness tails is very difficult predict, which lead unnecessarily high damage. Despite its importance, literature on rather fragmented. In this review, we provide a coherent overview processes causing implications for science practice. Specifically, propose nine hypotheses mechanisms in related atmosphere, catchment, river system. We then discuss extent current knowledge supports or contradicts these hypotheses. also statistical conditions emergence based derived distribution theory relate them generation mechanisms. review degree can from process data. Finally, recommend further research toward testing improving prediction tails.